Modelling the short-term response of the Greenland ice-sheet to global warming     

R. S. W. van de Wal  J. Oerlemans 《Climate Dynamics》1997,13(10):733-744

 A two-dimensional vertically integrated ice flow model has been developed to test the importance of various processes and concepts used for the prediction of the contribution of the Greenland ice-sheet to sea-level rise over the next 350 y (short-term response). The mass balance is modelled by the degree-day method and the energy-balance method. The lithosphere is considered to respond isostatically to a point load and the time evolution of the bedrock follows from a viscous asthenosphere. According to the IPCC-IS92a scenario (with constant aerosols after 1990) the Greenland ice-sheet is likely to cause a global sea level rise of 10.4 cm by 2100 AD. It is shown, however, that the result is sensitive to precise model formulations and that simplifications as used in the sea-level projection in the IPCC-96 report yield less accurate results. Our model results indicate that, on a time scale of a hundred years, including the dynamic response of the ice-sheet yields more mass loss than the fixed response in which changes in geometry are not incorporated. It appears to be important to consider sliding, as well as the fact that climate sensitivity increases for larger perturbations. Variations in predicted sea-level change on a time scale of hundred years depend mostly on the initial state of the ice-sheet. On a time scale of a few hundred years, however, the variability in the predicted melt is dominated by the variability in the climate scenarios. Received: 21 August 1996/Accepted: 12 May 1997  相似文献   

A record of accelerated erosion in the recent sediments of Blelham Tarn in the English Lake district   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

K. D. van der Post  F. Oldfield  E. Y. Haworth  P. R. J. Crooks  P. G. Appleby 《Journal of Paleolimnology》1997,18(2):103-120

Two frozen cores from Blelham Tarn were subsampled and measured using mineral magnetic, loss-on-ignition (LOI), radiometric, granulometric and diatom analyses. A detailed chronology was established using varves, radioisotopes and diatoms. This has enabled an accurately dated reconstruction of sedimentation over the past forty years. Despite a large increase in lake productivity, evidence suggests that the observed exponential increase in sedimentation rates can be attributed to erosion within the catchment. The predominant sediment source has been identified as surface soil. A comparison between the trend of accelerated sedimentation and the record of increased sheep stocking density for the area within which the most of the catchment lies, as well as observations of contemporary surface processes within the catchment, both suggest that much of the recent erosion is a direct response to increased pressure from sheep grazing.  相似文献   

Flexible spectral methods for the generation of random fields with power-law semivariograms     

Johannes Bruining  Diederik van Batenburg  Larry W. Lake  An Ping Yang 《Mathematical Geology》1997,29(6):823-848

Random field generators serve as a tool to model heterogeneous media for applications in hydrocarbon recovery and groundwater flow. Random fields with a power-law variogram structure, also termed fractional Brownian motion (fBm) fields, are of interest to study scale dependent heterogeneity effects on one-phase and two-phase flow. We show that such fields generated by the spectral method and the Inverse Fast Fourier Transform (IFFT) have an incorrect variogram structure and variance. To illustrate this we derive the prefactor of the fBm spectral density function, which is required to generate the fBm fields. We propose a new method to generate fBm fields that introduces weighting functions into the spectral method. It leads to a flexible and efficient algorithm. The flexibility permits an optimal choice of summation points (that is points in frequency space at which the weighting function is calculated) specific for the autocovariance structure of the field. As an illustration of the method, comparisons between estimated and expected statistics of fields with an exponential variogram and of fBm fields are presented. For power-law semivariograms, the proposed spectral method with a cylindrical distribution of the summation points gives optimal results.  相似文献   

Brunet, Roger; Eckert, Denis; Kolossov, Vladimir: Atlas de la Russie et des pays proches.     

Herman van der Wusten 《GeoJournal》1997,42(4):467-467

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The identifiability of parameters in a water quality model of the Biebrza River, Poland   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Marcel van der Perk  Marc F. P. Bierkens 《Journal of Hydrology》1997,200(1-4):307-322

The identifiability of model parameters of a steady state water quality model of the Biebrza River and the resulting variation in model results was examined by applying the Monte Carlo method which combines calibration, identifiability analysis, uncertainty analysis, and sensitivity analysis. The water quality model simulates the steady state concentration profiles of chloride, phosphate, ammonium, and nitrate as a function of distance along a river. The water quality model with the best combination of parameter values simulates the observed concentrations very well. However, the range of possible modelled concentrations obtained for other more or less equally eligible combinations of parameter values is rather wide. This range in model outcomes reflects possible errors in the model parameters. Discrepancies between the range in model outcomes and the validation data set are only caused by errors in model structure, or (measurement) errors in boundary conditions or input variables. In this sense the validation procedure is a test of model capability, where the effects of calibration errors are filtered out. It is concluded that, despite some slight deviations between model outcome and observations, the model is successful in simulating the spatial pattern of nutrient concentrations in the Biebrza River.  相似文献   

Influence of the Load Wavelength on the Permeability of a Viscosity Interface in the Mantle     

Čížková  Hana  Čadek  Ondřej  van den berg  Arie P. 《Studia Geophysica et Geodaetica》1997,41(1):64-72

Assuming a radially stratified Newtonian mantle in a steady-state approximation, we demonstrate that the permeability of a viscosity interface at 660-km depth strongly depends on the wavelength of buoyancy forces driving the flow. The flow induced by long-wavelength loads penetrates through the boundary freely even if the viscosity increases by two orders. In contrast, the boundary is practically impermeable for short-wavelength loads located in the upper mantle. Thus, a stepwise increase of viscosity is a significant obstacle for small descending features in the upper mantle, but huge upper mantle downwellings, or upwellings formed in the-lower mantle can overcome it easily. This indicates that certain care is necessary in interpreting the seismic structure of the mantle by means of flow models. The global tomographic image includes only the first few degrees of the harmonic series and, consequently, its interpretation in terms of a present-day flow field results in a predominantly whole-mantle circulation even for extreme viscosity contrasts.  相似文献   

Space-time mapping of soil salinity using probabilistic bayesian maximum entropy     

A. Douaik  M. van Meirvenne  T. Tóth  M. Serre 《Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment (SERRA)》2004,18(4):219-227

The mapping of saline soils is the first task before any reclamation effort. Reclamation is based on the knowledge of soil salinity in space and how it evolves with time. Soil salinity is traditionally determined by soil sampling and laboratory analysis. Recently, it became possible to complement these hard data with soft secondary data made available using field sensors like electrode probes. In this study, we had two data sets. The first includes measurements of field salinity (EC_a) at 413 locations and 19 time instants. The second, which is a subset of the first (13 to 20 locations), contains, in addition to EC_a, salinity determined in the laboratory (EC_2.5). Based on a procedure of cross-validation, we compared the prediction performance in the space-time domain of 3 methods: kriging using either only hard data (HK) or hard and mid interval soft data (HMIK), and Bayesian maximum entropy (BME) using probabilistic soft data. We found that BME was less biased, more accurate and giving estimates, which were better correlated with the observed values than the two kriging techniques. In addition, BME allowed one to delineate with better detail saline from non-saline areas.  相似文献   

Managed water levels and the expansion of emergent vegetation along a lakeshore     

Hugo Coops  J. Theo Vulink  Egbert H. van Nes 《Limnologica》2004,34(1-2):57

Water-level fluctuations may be used to promote the expansion of emergent vegetation along lakeshores. We present the case of the lake Volkerak-Zoommeer in the Netherlands, a fresh-water lake created in 1987 after the enclosure of an estuary. Using an experimental area in which the water level could be manipulated, it was shown that partial summer drawdown of the shoreline created suitable conditions for germination and growth of tall emergent species (in particular Phragmites australis). Plant survival and growth depended on subsequent water-level fluctuations and grazing by waterbirds. Based on the experiment and empirical data, a model was developed to predict the effects of the water-level regime on potential reed bed development. The model was applied for four hydrological scenarios that have been considered for the water-level management of the lake.  相似文献   

Beyond Route 66: Some observations on US geography at AAG 100     

Herman van der Wusten 《GeoJournal》2004,59(1):47-50

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Decoupling of As and Fe release to Bangladesh groundwater under reducing conditions. Part I: Evidence from sediment profiles     

A. Horneman  A. van Geen  P.E. Mathe  R.K. Dhar  M.A. Hoque  M. Shamsudduha  K.M. Ahmed 《Geochimica et cosmochimica acta》2004,68(17):3459-3473

This study reexamines the notion that extensive As mobilization in anoxic groundwater of Bangladesh is intimately linked to the dissolution of Fe oxyhydroxides on the basis of analyses performed on a suite of freshly collected samples of aquifer material. Detailed sediment profiles extending to 40 to 70 m depth below the surface were obtained at six sites where local groundwater As concentrations were known to span a wide range. The sediment properties that were measured include (1) the proportion of Fe(II) in the Fe fraction leached in hot 1.2 N HCl, (2) diffuse spectral reflectance, and (3) magnetic susceptibility.In parallel with local concentrations of dissolved As ranging from <5 to 600 μg/L, Fe(II)/Fe ratios in shallow (gray) Holocene sands tended to gradually increase with depth from values of 0.3 to 0.5 to up to 0.9. In deeper (orange) aquifers of presumed Pleistocene age that were separated from shallow sands by a clay layer and contained <5 μg/L dissolved As, leachable Fe(II)/Fe ratios averaged ∼0.2. There was no consistent relation between sediment Fe(II)/Fe and dissolved Fe concentrations in groundwater in nearby wells. The reflectance measurements indicate a systematic linear relation (R² of 0.66; n = 151) between the first derivative transform of the reflectance at 520 nm and Fe(II)/Fe. The magnetic susceptibility of the shallow aquifer sands ranged from 200 to 3600 (x 10⁻⁹ m³/kg SI) and was linearly related (R² of 0.75; n = 29) to the concentrations of minerals that could be magnetically separated (0.03 to 0.79% dry weight). No systematic depth trends in magnetic susceptibility were observed within the shallow sands, although the susceptibility of deeper low-As aquifers was low (up to ∼200 × 10⁻⁹ m³/kg SI).This set of observations, complemented by incubation results described in a companion paper by van Geen et al. (this volume), suggests that the release of As is linked to the transformation of predominantly Fe (III) oxyhydroxide coatings on sand particles to Fe(II) or mixed Fe(II/III) solid phases with a flatter reflectance spectrum such as siderite, vivianite, or magnetite, without necessarily resulting in the release of Fe to groundwater. The very low As/Fe ratio of magnetically separated minerals compared to the As/Fe of bulk acid leachate (2 vs. 40 10⁻⁶, respectively) suggests that such a transformation could be accompanied by a significant redistribution of As to a mobilizable phase on the surface of aquifer particles.  相似文献